Line Breakers Daily Picks– WEEK of 7/22-7/28
Mon: 1-2
1. Chicago Cubs (-120) (2 Units)
The Cubs will look to stop the Giants winning ways and their hot streak as they enter town for a 3 game series. The Cubs will start rookie Alec Mills, 0-0 with a 4.50 ERA. The Giants will start Shaun Anderson, 3-2 with a 4.87 ERA. The Cubs rookie did okay in his first ever MLB start, allowing 3 ER over 6 innings. Mills stuff looked good and we see him having success against the Giants. He should be able to get his first win here tonight and at such little juice as a road favorite, tons of value here. Anderson, on the other hand, has been struggling. He has allowed 4 ER+ in 3 straight starts. EWWW. Anderson has lost his way a little bit and has been giving up more runs than his team can support, resulting in some no decision and losses. Anderson has not shut out or shut down any opponent, no to mention he doesn’t go deep into games. We predict a bad outing from Anderson and Mills stealing the show as he gets his first win of his career. The Cubs at this price seem to good to be true and its because the rookie is pitching. However, we know how good this young starter can be and we watched him pitch in his debut. Trust us the odds makers don’t know his true potential and you can bet this line is going to swing towards the Cubs. We see tremendous value in the Cubs at (-120), knowing they can hit the baseball on the road. The Cubs are an above average road hitting team, while the Giants have been hot we know its unsustainable. The rookie is the wild card in this game and if you watched him pitch in his last start you would know there is a lot of value behind this pick tonight. Take the Cubs for 2 units as Alec Mills get his first win and proves why he deserves to be in the MLB to cash our ticket.
2. Milwaukee Brewers (-120) (2 Units)
The Brewers are coming back home after a 4 game road trip. They are coming off a big road win vs the Diamondbacks and are looking to make it 2 in a row. Chase Anderson is going to day for the Brewers. HE is 4-1 at home with a 3.88 ERA. He is holding hitters to a .188 batting average when pitching at home. We see that continuing today vs a Reds lineup that struggles on the road. The Brewers on the other hand are a great home hitting team. They love hitting home runs, they are third in the league in home runs at home. Just recently the Brewers have been on fire and are averaging close to 7 runs per game compared to areds team who is averaging just over 4 runs per game. The Brewers are almost averaging 2 home runs per game in that 7 game stretch and we won’t be surprised if they go deep a couple times tonight. We love the Brewers at home vs the Reds playing on the road. The Reds are 19-29 in road games and are just 2-8 in their last 10 road games. Lay 2 Units on the Reds and lets grow your bankroll!!!
3. Seattle Mariners/Texas Rangers over 9.5 runs (-115) (2 Units)
The Mariners this year have been over gods. They have hit 65% of their overs this year. We love this over, one because of the Mariners success with hitting overs but also because the Rangers pitcher throwing today has had trouble on the road this year. Adrian Sampson is 1-4 with a ERA of 7.64 on the road this year. Hitters will be licking their chops when they face him today, he is giving up a .338 batting averaging to hitters this year on the road. Beware, Seattle might become a hit parade. Texas has a great trend for today’s game as well, they are a top 5 team with scoring runs vs left-handed pitching. The pitcher for the Mariners, Marco Gonzales, is a lefty. His ERA at home is 5.46 and is giving up a batting average of .286. We love the over in this game because of all of these trends we have listed above. Lay 2 units on the over and lets get after it today!!!
Tues: 1-2
1. Milwaukee Brewers (-140) (2 Units)
The Brewers are the play here tonight as they host the Reds. The Brewers will start Zach Davies, 8-2 with 2.79 ERA. The Reds will start Roark, 5-6 and 3.97 ERA. Zach Davies has looked like one of the best pitchers in baseball and he plays exceptionally well at home. Davies has allowed 1 ER or less in his last 4 starts. Roark, on the other had, not as good. Roark allowed 4+ ER in 2 out of his last 4 starts. Roark seems to be dominating bad teams and losing to good teams. We think the Brewers here at home should be bigger favorites with their Ace on the mound. The Brewers are great value here (-140). The Brewers are one of the best home hitting teams in the MLB at home and have fared well in hitting home runs at home. One of the key stats to success in the MLB. We are all over the Brew Crew tonight as we see Davies cruising to an easy win. Take Milwaukee for 2 units as they cash another play!
2. San Francisco Giants (+104) (2 Units)
The Giants are coming into this game as a pretty hot team, they are 9-1 in their last 10 games and they are bringing out their big guns today. They have Madison Bumgarner on the mound today. His future is still up in the air as the trade deadline looms closer and closer but something is for sure he is a pitcher you want pitching for you. He has given up just 3 earned runs over his last 4 starts, 23 innings for those keeping track at home. He is coming off of a complete game. Also a big trend we like today is the Cubs showing that they can’t be consistent on the road this year. They are 18-28 on the road and we don’t see that getting better today. The Cubs have had a hard time hitting lefties all year long, they are in the bottom six of the league for average vs lefties. The Cubs are just averaging over 4 runs per game over their last 6 and just hitting .231. We see those trends continuing if not going down because of the Giants pitching today. Lay 2 Units on the Giants and watch as the Cubs lose again on the road.
3. Cleveland Indians -1.5 runline (-105) (2 Units)
This is one of those games that jumps out to you on the page. Let’s talk about the Blue Jays first. Aaron Sanchez is pitching and after looking at his guys stats this could be his last start in the MLB. He has lost in his last 10 games he started. You read that right, 10 starts in a row and 10 losses in a row. Hitters are batting .293 vs him and his ERA at home this year is over 5.50. The Indian hitters will be dying to get at bats vs him today. Trevor Bauer is pitching today for the Indians. He is having a good year but he is pitching even better on the road this year. He is 6-2 with a 2.43 ERA on the road. Batting s are hitting just .209 vs him in road games and we love this trend to continue. Cleveland as a team is hitting .296 over their last 7 games and averaging over 6 runs per game in that stretch. Cleveland is covering over 58% of their run lines on the road this year. Toronto is only covering 38% of their run lines at home. We love these trends and that is why we advise you lay 2 units on the Indians to cover the run line!!
Weds: 0-3
1. Minnesota Twins (+103) (2 Units)
We are on the Twins here today again as they look to continue their success against the New York Yankees at home. The Twins will start Jake Odorizzi, 11-4 with a 3.18 ERA. The Yankees will start J.A. Happ, 8-5 with a 4.86 ERA. Odorizzi hasn’t been as sharp as he was to begin the season, but statistically has been great at home. He has allowed 3ER+ in 3 start home starts, but he was also walking a lot of batters in those games. Odorizzi has good numbers vs. teams above .500 and almost get motivated to pitch at a higher level. We predict Odorizzi going back to his old ways here at home vs. the Yankees and pitching well. Happ, on the other hand, has been pitched well lately. Happ has allowed 2 ER or less in his last 3 starts. Happ does have the potential to have bad outings and we see that happening on the road vs. the Twins, great hitting team vs. lefties. We see Happ having an off night considering how well the Twins have hit lefties at home and this season. The Twins and Yankees are top hitting teams in the MLB, but the Twins have been better at home and vs. left handed pitching than the Yankees on the road. We predict the Twins winning by hitting Happ hard and Odorizzi doing enough to get the job done. Take the Twins for 2 units as they go deep a few times to beat the Yankees tonight!
2. Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+105) (2 Units)
The Dodgers are coming into this game after having a tough loss last night to the Angels. We love the trend of the Dodgers coming back strong after a loss. They have won 65% of their games after a loss this season and we find that they have the edge tonight to get you a big win. The Angels are pitching Jamie Barria,he is 1-3 on the road with an ERA over 13. WOW. He has been giving up a .400 average to hitters on the road. We love this matchup tonight vs Dodger hitters that can just light up the scoreboard. Even though the Angels won last night they are only hitting. 238 and scoring just 4 runs over their last 6 games. They are a .500 team on the road and they also have not proven that they can beat good teams this year with just a 27-35 record vs teams with a winning record. It should come to no surprise that the Dodgers have been doing well over the last 6 games. They are scoring over 6 runs per game and are averaging 2 home runs per game as well. Keep your head up for incoming moon shots tonight by the Dodger hitters. Lay 2 units on the Dodgers to cover the run line and help grow your bank roll.
3. Baltimore Orioles/Arizona Diamondbacks over 9 runs (-110) (2 Units)
Both of these teams have been really hitting the ball recently. The Diamondbacks are averaging over 6 runs per game and have been hitting .929 over their last 6 games. While the Orioles have been hitting .319, averaging more than 2 home runs per game and scoring nearly 7 runs per game in their last 6 games. The Pitching matchups favor the over tonight. Orioles pitcher John Means has shown a weakness on the road this year. He has given up 10 runs over his last 3 starts. The DIamondbacks are great at hitting lefties this year. They are batting .285 as a team vs left handed pitching and we see that number raising after today. Taylor Clark, the pitcher for the Diamondbacks is not having a great year at home this year. He is 1-2 with an ERA of 7.56. Hittiners will be foaming at the mouth knowing that he is giving up a .309 average to hitters at home. Look for both teams to score early and often and this over to hit with ease. Lay 2 units on over 9 runs today and watch as they grow your bankroll.
Thurs:7/25 2-1
1. Washington Nationals -1.5 ruline (-140) (2 Units)
The Nationals have been great over the last month of play. More importantly Max Scherzer has been Cy Young material. He has won his last 7 starts and has not gone less than 7 innings of work and has not given up more than 2 runs over those 7 games. He has had a couple weeks off so he should be ready to really dominate tonight. Looking at it from the Rockies side of things. They have not been playing well over the past week. They are 2-8 over their last 10 games and we see that trend continuing today. They have been averaging just 4 runs per game over the last week ad have only hit 3 home runs. They are hitting just .241 as a team and we love the fact that they are not at their best and now they have to face Mad Max. The NAtionals have been averaging just under 6 runs per game over their last 6 and are hitting .294. The Nationals big weakness all year long has been their bullpen but we love that Scherzer will most likely go deep into the game and giving them the night off so to speak. The NAtionals have won by more than 2 runs in 6 out of the last 7 games that Scherzer has been pitched in. We love this trend to continue and the Nationals to be able to cover this run line for tonight. Lay 2 units and lets get back on track.
2. The New York Yankees/Boston Red Sox over 11 (-110) (2 Units)
Both of these teams have been dominating games up at the plate. The REd Sox have been scoring over 6 runs per game over their last 7 games and have been hitting just about 2 home runs per game. The Yankees have been murdering the ball recently. They are hitting .313 over the last 7 games, scoring just under 8 runs per game and are hitting just below 2 home runs per game. We see the pitching matchup favoring the over tonight. The Yankees are throwing Masahiro Tanaka tonight, He is 1-3 on the road with a 5.40 ERA, just over his last 3 road starts he has given up 14 runs. He is averaging over 1 home run per start on the road, so don’t be surprised if the Sox hit a couple of souvenirs tonight. The Red Sox are pitching Rick Porcello, He has given up 27 runs over his last 5 starts…this guy was once a cy young winner but now he has over a 5 ERA at home. Hitters are hitting .284 against him this year, this looks great for the over especially since the yankees are seeing the baseball so well. Yankees are hitting over 70% of their overs this year on the road. Absolutely over monsters this year. WE love this pick and so should you. Lay 2 units on the over and watch as these two teams slug it out.
3. Minnesota Twins -1.5 Run line(+110) (2 Units)
The Twins are coming into this game having lost 2 in a row, they have only lost 3 in a row one time this season. So it should come as no surprise that the Twins are the best in the league after a loss. They are winning over 70% of their games after a loss this year. We love the Twins on the road this year, They have the best record on the road this year in the MLB. They have hit the most home runs and have the highest batting average on the road this year. We realize that the White Sox are pitching Lucas Giolito tonight but he has shown chinks in the armour this year and we love how well the TWins hit right handed pitching. Home runs are the absolute worst thing to pitchers and seeing home the Twins love hitting them, they can change the game in a heartbeat. The White sox are just an average team hitting the ball this year at home and against right handed pitching. We like the Edge that the Twins bring with their powerful bats and with their ace on the mound. Lay 2 units on the Twins to cover 1.5 and LFG!!!
Fri: 1-1
1. Arizona Diamondbacks/Miami Marlins over 7.5 runs (-115) (2 Units)
We love this matchup today because 7.5 runs is nothing in todays game. The Marlins are throwing Sandy Alcantara who has given up 18 runs over his last 4 starts. The Diamondbacks have scored the most runs on the road this year. They are second in home runs and third in average. This team knows how to bang the ball around on the road. Arizona is also hitting over 56% of their overs on the road. We like that trend to continue. We could see the Diamondbacks alone scoring more than 7.5 runs. On top of this Zack Greinke is pitching, he is having a great year but he is not afraid to swing the bat at the plate. He has hit a couple home runs this year. The Marlins have also hit over 56% of their overs this year at home. We are so surprised at this line that we thought it was a mistake when we first saw it. Law two units on the over and watch as this hits easily.
2. Seattle Mariners (-135) (2 Units)
Both of these teams are bottom in their respective division, the Tigers are just on another level this year. They are 1-9 in their last ten and we see their three game losing streak turning into a 4 game winning streak. Over the last 6 games they have averaged just 2.3 runs per game and are hitting .199. This is no fluke, they are averaging under 4 runs on the road this year and are .234. This is just one of the worst teams in the league. We like the Mariners to win this battle for the worst record today mainly because of their long ball ability. They are a top 7 team in home runs at home. Daniel Norris, who is pitching for the tigers today, is giving up a .300 average on the road this year. Look for the Mariners to compile a lot of hits today off of him. Lay 2 units on the Mariners and let them grow your bank roll.
Sat: 1-2
Arizona Diamondbacks (-124) (2 Units)
Arizona is coming off of a tough loss last night to the Marlins. They can back today with their young stud whos name just happens to be Young. He has been absolutely stellar this year and we see that continuing today. He has just given up 2 runs on the road this year out of 12.2 innings pitched and is only giving up a .120 average to hitters. Miami has been struggling the past 6 games, only averaging 2.9 runs per game and hitting .180. We over that trend to continue against a hot pitcher in Alex Young. We love arizona on the road, you can only keep them down for so long and are due for a breakout game on the road. They are second in home runs and third in batting average on the road. Look up into the sky for home runs if you are attending the game today, We wouldn’t be surprised in sometime went yard 3 times and kept this amazing home run streak alive. The Diamondbacks are winning 60% of their games as the road favorite to the Marlins who are winning only 35% of their home dog games. We love this game and so should you. Lay 2 Units on the DIamondbacks and lets have a great day!!!
Texas Rangers (+155) (2 Units)
Texas Rangers/Oakland Athletics over 9.5 runs(+100) (2 Units)
We love this game to hit the over and for the Rangers to win. Adrian Sampson is not having that great of a year but he has had some success vs the A’s in the past. He has a complete game vs them about 6 weeks ago, We think he has that caliber but we also see him giving up a few runs and this being a dog fight. Homer Bailey on the other hand has given up 9 runs in 8 innings pitched vs the Rangers this year. We always try and find when Bailey pitches because he always seems to lose these big favorite games, we wouldn’t be surprised if Bailey laid an egg and gave up 6+ runs by himself.. We like both teams breaking out of their slump today vs pitchers that are not afraid to give up runs. The Rangers have been confident in these road dog situations, they have won over 66% of their games as the road dog and we love them today, they can break out at anytime and hit 4+ home runs in a game. We see this game looking like a football score but in the end the Rangers will prevail. Lay 2 Units on the Rangers and the over and lets get this sweep today!!!
Sun: 2-1
Houston Astros (-135) (2 Units)
Houston Astros/St.Louis Cardinals under 9.5 (-110) (2 Units)
The Astros are coming into this game coming off of a big win in st.louis. They are bringing Wade Miley on the mound today who has had a great month of July. He is 2-0 in his last 3 road starts and we see him getting number 3 today. He is a southpaw which is important for today because the Cardinals are horrible vs lefties this year. They have the third worst batting average vs lefties this year and we don’t see that changing after today. Miley himself is very stingy on the road. He is only giving up a .234 batting average to hitters on the road. We have much more trust in the Astro hitters today than the Cardinal hitters. The Astros are a top 5 team in home runs and average on the road this year. Don’t be surprised if the Astros take an early lead and hold it the whole game. Both of these pitchers have the ability to go deep into games, that is why we also love the under today. Teams have just played all weekend and are looking forward to the next game. Not to mention that both of these teams are under hitting teams this year. St.Louis is hitting over 60% of their unders at home this year. The Astros are not far behind with hitting over 54% of their unders on the road this year. Look for both pitchers to be stingy but the Astros winning this one. Lay 2 units on the under and the Astros and lets cap this sunday off with a bang.
Milwaukee Brewers/Chicago Cubs under 10 (-110) (2 Units)
We love this matchup today because we see an edge in the under for today. The Brewers are a middle of the rod team against lefties this year. They have not shown that they can consistently get hits off of them. They are hitting just .248 vs them. The Pitching matchup that we have today is one that is looking promising for the under. Zach Davies is looking to bounce back from a horrible start vs the Reds a couple days ago. He is their Ace and he will prove that today. Jose Quintana brings that left arm to the matchup today, he is not having the best year but we see today as a key matchup for him vs a brewers team that has shown that they can’t really hit lefties. We have a great trend for everyone today. When Davies pitches his team is 10-5 hitting the under and when Quintana pitches his team is 10-3 with hitting the under. Look for this game to be a hard fought battle but the under being the smart beat. Lay 2 units on the under hitting and lets get this ticket cashed for everyone today.